2002—2019年江西省省级地质灾害气象预警分析
Analysis on the meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2019
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摘要: 江西省是我国地质灾害高发、频发的主要省区之一。2002年,原江西省国土资源厅与江西省气象局合作,首次在江西卫视天气预报节目中发布了全国第一个省级地质灾害气象预警产品。江西省省级地质灾害气象预警工作历经十余年的发展,预警等级划分主要采用图层叠加法,经历了无预警等级、五级预警等级、四级预警等级3个阶段,预警信息越来越精准。2002年至2019年年底,共发布预警信息298期,其中红色(五级)预警9期,橙色(四级)预警80期,黄色(三级)预警190期,蓝色预警15期,无等级预警4期; 2002—2005年为预警发布尝试阶段,发布的预警信息较少; 2006年始,发布的预警信息有较大程度增长。2002年至2019年年底,成功预报地质灾害事件856起,避免可能的人员伤亡8 885人,预警成效显著。对2011年以来172期预警命中率和空报率的年均值进行统计,发现命中率尚可,但空报率较高。预警工作主要存在的问题为预警信息仍为手工制作、预案对预警等级划分已出现不适用情况、未制定预警校验要求等。后期预警工作将向自动化、精细化及短临预警方向发展。Abstract: Jiangxi is one of the main Provinces with high frequency of geological disasters in China. In 2002, the former Department of Land and Resources of Jiangxi Province, in cooperation with Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau, issued the country’s first provincial meteorological warning product of geological disasters in China in the weather forecast program of Jiangxi Satellite TV for the first time. After over ten years of development, the provincial geol-hazard meteorological early warning work in Jiangxi has been divided into three stages by layer overlapping method: no early warning, five-grade warning and four-grade warning, with the more accurate warning message. Since 2002, a total of 298 alerts have been issued, including 9 red(Grade-5)alerts, 80 orange(Grade-4)alerts, 190 yellow(Grade-3)alerts, 15 blue alerts and 4 non-grade alerts. From 2002 to 2005, there were a few warnings issued during the trial period. Since 2006, the number of alerts issued has increased considerably. Since 2002, remarkable early warning effect has been achieved with 856 geological disasters successfully predicted and 8 885 possible casualties avoided. The statistics on the annual average of early warning hit rate and false prediction rate of 172 alerts since 2011 show that the hit rate is acceptable, but the false prediction rate is high. The main problems in early warning work are that the early warning information is still hand-made, the warning classification is not applicable to preparedness plan, and no warning calibration requirements are established. The later warning work will develop to automation, refinement and short impending warning.