Abstract:
Rainfall is one of the key inducements of geological hazards. Continuous rainfall coupled with the geological environment elements will lead to the deformation and failure of the slope, which in turn causes the continuous changes in the weighting system of the various influence factors of geological hazards. Therefore, it is of great significance for accurate hazard warning and forecast to fully consider the temporal variability of the influence factors' weights of geological hazards in the research of rainfall threshold. This paper selected nine influence factors(lithology, slope, etc.)for four types of geological hazards including landslides, collapses, slope debris flows and gully debris flows to analyze the changes in the weighting system of ten rainfall periods(1 h,3 h,6 h etc.)in Ningbo, and finally put forward three levels (red, orange and yellow) of warning and forecasting value for different geo-hazard risk prevention zones. The results show that the weights of the nine influence factors of the four types of geological hazards change apparently within 24 hours after rainfall. The weights of the six influence factors, including the slope and soil layer thickness of landslides, the slope and elevation difference of collapses, the slope and lithology of slope debris flows, and the slope and elevation of the gully debris flows, change more obviously in the process of rainfall. The weights of slopes are generally positively correlated with time, while the weights of the other factors are negatively correlated with time. Comparing the rainfall thresholds calculated by the method considering the time-varying weights and the I-D logarithmic method, the result indicates that the rainfall thresholds calculated by the former method can reflect more real warning values.