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    论潮滩系统模型

    On integrated modeling of tidal flat environments based on the systems theory

    • 摘要: 潮滩研究已有近百年历史,在潮滩地貌-沉积分带性、潮水沟形态、盐沼边缘陡坎成因等方向,通过现场观测、数据采集以及系统特征描述、过程和机制进行分析,建立了学科术语和经验定律体系。但从地球系统科学观点来看,潮滩作为一个复杂系统,需要建立相应的控制方程组,以揭示潮滩的局地、瞬间特征以及整体演化路径。根据复杂系统理论和人工智能技术框架,针对潮滩环境建立系统模型的关键是:要给出潮滩的状态变量及其控制方程的表达式,包括基于学科原理推导的公式、经验公式和数学假设等。人工智能技术的快速发展,有助于锁定潮滩系统模型的应用场景,并在局域-普适模型和稳定态-系统状态转换两个层面上提升模型的可靠性。该模型一旦建立,潮滩的地貌分带性、潮水沟体系、生物地貌、生态系统、气候变化、人类活动影响、沉积记录及其信息提取、潮汐环境的地质历史等研究将融为一体,人工智能功能也将获得更加充分地发挥。

       

      Abstract: The study of tidal flats has a history of nearly a century. A system of terminology and empirical law has been established for tidal flat geomorphic and sedimentary zonation, tidal creek dynamics, and the formation of salt marsh edge cliffs, on the basis of field observations and data collection, systematic feature descriptions, and process and mechanism analyses. However, from the perspective of Earth system science, there is a need of the establishment of a set of control equations for tidal flats, as a type of complex systems, to reveal their local, instantaneous characteristics and general evolution patterns. According to the theory of complex systems and the framework of artificial intelligence technology, the key of the tidal flat system model is to provide the expressions of the relevant state variables and their control equations, which are derived from theoretical principles, empirical formulas, and mathematical assumptions. The artificial intelligence technology helps to identify the application scenarios of the model and enhance the reliability of the model on the local to global scales, capable of dealing with both stable and regime shift situations. Such a model will provide an ideal tool for an integrated investigation into tidal flats, in terms of the geomorphic zonation, tidal creek formation, biogeomorphology, ecosystems, climate change consequences, coastal human activity impacts, sedimentary records as archives of environmental change, and the tidal environments in the geological past, making full use of artificial intelligence techniques.

       

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