Analysis on the meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2019

Jiangxi is one of the main Provinces with high frequency of geological disasters in China. In 2002, the former Department of Land and Resources of Jiangxi Province, in cooperation with Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau, issued the country’s first provincial meteorological warning product of geological disasters in China in the weather forecast program of Jiangxi Satellite TV for the first time. After over ten years of development, the provincial geol-hazard meteorological early warning work in Jiangxi has been divided into three stages by layer overlapping method: no early warning, five-grade warning and four-grade warning, with the more accurate warning message. Since 2002, a total of 298 alerts have been issued, including 9 red(Grade-5)alerts, 80 orange(Grade-4)alerts, 190 yellow(Grade-3)alerts, 15 blue alerts and 4 non-grade alerts. From 2002 to 2005, there were a few warnings issued during the trial period. Since 2006, the number of alerts issued has increased considerably. Since 2002, remarkable early warning effect has been achieved with 856 geological disasters successfully predicted and 8 885 possible casualties avoided. The statistics on the annual average of early warning hit rate and false prediction rate of 172 alerts since 2011 show that the hit rate is acceptable, but the false prediction rate is high. The main problems in early warning work are that the early warning information is still hand-made, the warning classification is not applicable to preparedness plan, and no warning calibration requirements are established. The later warning work will develop to automation, refinement and short impending warning.